Super Bowl LIV and a New NFL Dynasty

NFL, NFL Playoffs, Super Bowl LIV

The 2019 season produced the ideal Super Bowl match-up. Sure, a Ravens-49ers clash would have been a backyard brawl, while Chiefs-Saints may have set the scoreboard on fire. This one presents a strength on strength battle, however, the best offense in the league versus its best defense. The NFL’s premiere quarterback against an overbearing four man pass rush. The Niner offense vs. K.C.’s defense may decide the game, but the fireworks and drama will occur when Patrick Mahomes has the ball.

Andy Reid uses the running game to give Mahomes plays off, to rest before his next trick. It’s a smokescreen. While Damien Williams may break a chunk play off once a half, these yards are a product of the passing game. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, and it isn’t close. He possesses the size, arm strength, accuracy, intelligence, savvy, escapability, and audacity one looks for in a franchise quarterback. He has no flaws. Consider his stable of weapons: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson give him the most dangerous threats in the league. All his receivers can and will beat one-on-one coverage deep. Kelce dominates the middle of the field. The quickness of the wideouts allow them to amass gobs of yardage off screens and slants. No lead is safe against them. Down 24-0 in the Divisional Round against Houston in the second quarter, K.C. went on a 51-7 run. With the rules as they are, no defense can slow them down.

The only way to bother a generational quarterback is to pressure him with four rushers and hit him often. San Francisco has the talent to annoy Mahomes. Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas combined for 35 sacks and 69 quarterback hits on the season. Impressive, and a necessity on Sunday. The 49er secondary will try to cover long enough to allow the pressure to get to Mahomes, and while Richard Sherman is one of the best, speed bothers him. Man coverage won’t work against the Chiefs; relying on defensive backs to cover those speedsters one-on-one for 3-4 seconds per play is ludicrous. San Fran will have to drop 7 in coverage, remain disciplined in their assignments, and hope the pass rush gets to Mahomes.

This is the tricky part. While K.C.’s offensive line is average on their best day, Mahomes moves as well in the pocket as anyone this side of Lamar Jackson. While long runs like his touchdown scamper against Tennessee in the AFC Championship aren’t the norm, Mahomes possesses strong footwork in the pocket, able to shift his body to open passing windows. His ingenuity outside the pocket- sidearm throws, no-look passes- add another dimension teams cannot prepare for. Mahomes is a match-up nightmare. He is the quintessential franchise quarterback. The mistakes he can cover for are infinite.

While the fascination lies with the Chief offense battling the 49er defense, the inverse conflict is predictable. San Francisco will run the ball at the K.C. defense early, often, and at all costs. While he’s been steady all season, Jimmy Garoppolo has a tendency to turn it over, and Kyle Shanahan cannot afford to trust his quarterback on a stage of this magnitude. He only allowed Garoppolo to throw 19 times against Minnesota in the Divisional Round, 8 versus Green Bay in the NFC Championship. No secrets here.

The 49ers have run the ball down opponents’ throats all season, ranking 2nd in rushes and yards per game. Tevin Coleman is questionable, but Ryan Mostert and Matt Breida have been exceptional this year. Their speed, matched with Shanahan’s wide zone blocking scheme, allow the Niner offense to control the line of scrimmage. Kansas City’s defense is poor against the run (26th in yards, 29th yards per rush). San Francisco must run the ball to control clock. Run on 1st and 2nd down to keep 3rd down manageable, then find George Kittle with easy passes when necessary to throw. Asking your defense to carry the weight of shutting down K.C.’s offense is too large a burden to bear. The 49er offense must do their part.

The push and pull on Sunday will be fascinating. Can the dominate 49er defense have any success in slowing down the unstoppable Kansas City attack? Patrick Mahomes has never had a subpar game; can San Fran force him into one? Will the S.F. running attack dominate K.C.’s defense to the point Mahomes can’t get off the sideline?

Both offenses will find success in what they do well. The Kansas City defense isn’t good enough to slow down the 49er rushing attack. Will they have too much success running the ball? San Francisco’s biggest worry may be too many chunk runs, scoring too quickly in defiance of their eat-the-clock strategy. K.C.’s run defense is so soft, it isn’t hard to imagine a scenario whereby the 49er running attack works too well, putting the ball back in Mahomes’ hands with little rest for their defense.

Which won’t end well for the 49ers. While they may get pressure, the K.C. quarterback is too good to allow it to bother him consistently. Patrick Mahomes has diagnosed and taken advantage of everything NFL defenses have schemed to stop him. His talents are many, his weapons too dangerous to cover for 60 minutes. The Chiefs will score points; can the 49ers keep up? Kyle Shanahan has counted on his defense to keep pressure off his quarterback, but he’ll need Jimmy G to make multiple plays on Sunday. This is when mistakes happen. The stress of trying to score with the Chiefs will prove too much to handle.

Patrick Mahomes has been the best player in football the last two years, and Andy Reid one of the league’s greatest coaches. With the New England reign likely ending, a new one begins in Kansas City. Though early in his career, Mahomes has shown the abilities to be one of the greatest to play the position. A Chiefs win on Sunday portends a new NFL dynasty.

Kansas City, 31-28

 

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