A disappointing, wind hindered loss against the Oakland Raiders Sunday took the Browns to their bye week, halfway into the 2020 season. Five wins, three losses, and perched in playoff position, any rational Browns backer knows to enjoy the moments, and the victories. Seven teams now make the playoffs in each conference (with a report that the NFL may consider 8 entrants if games get canceled because of COVID). The schedule is favorable. Houston, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville await after the bye (combined records: 5-16-1), and they’ll face both New York teams in December. Is this a playoff team, and can they compete against Super Bowl contenders?
The losses are bad. Cleveland has averaged 37.4 points in wins, just 6.3 in losses. Any playoff run hinges on the offense scoring. Baker Mayfield again regressed in the wind on Sunday, a bad sign for the rest of the season. Four home games, plus two road games in New York, promise erratic weather. Mayfield has to find consistency. 12-25 for 122 yards Sunday, regardless of the conditions, won’t get the Browns into the playoffs. Receivers dropped passes. Jedrick Wills Jr. was awful. The running game produced little. Excuses, all of it. Quarterbacks lead their teams on poor weather days and during games when the rest of his teammates are struggling. He must deal with the elements for the balance of the season. He’s succeeded when conditions favor him, against poor defenses and lackluster opponents. Baker has to show up when he’s off, against playoff worthy opponents, to prove he’s capable of winning games in January. His flaky play is concerning.
Nick Chubb is close to returning, however, so Mayfield’s effect will lessen if Chubb and the offensive line re-establish the number 1 rushing attack in the league. But the defense isn’t getting better, and no one returning from injury can save this unit. The razor’s edge Cleveland plays on each week is further sharpened if the defense isn’t sacking the quarterback and forcing turnovers. No miscues by Las Vegas Sunday, and only 2 sacks, both by Olivier Vernon, isn’t good enough. A Vernon sighting was refreshing. He needs to do more over the second half of the season. Myles Garrett injured a knee, and while he’ll be ready when the team returns from the bye, he’s too often been their only resistance. Vernon has to help.
Ronnie Harrison has settled into one of the safety roles, providing stability (7th ranked safety via Pro Football Focus). But Mack Wilson has been abhorrent since returning (81 out of 82 linebackers, via PFF), and the corners, save Denzel Ward, can’t cover. Opposing offenses overcome penalties and lost yardage plays as the Raiders did on Sunday, digging out of a 3rd and 18 to get a first down, because the defense plays on their heels. The young guys are thinking too much and the veterans aren’t athletic. Josh Jacobs punished them on the ground Sunday. Joe Burrow has shredded them twice through the air. They can’t stop either attack, and offenses know it.
An alarming defensive stat? The Browns have the league’s 18th best sack rate, 6.06%. The heart of the defense, the only way they can control games, and they’re middling. Pittsburgh’s defense gives away yards, but their sack rate (11.54%) is almost double of Cleveland’s. The Browns defense is 26th in the NFL, allowing teams to convert 48% of their third downs. Long drives are becoming the norm. If Kevin Stefanski hopes to run the ball and control the clock when Nick Chubb returns, his defense must get themselves off the field. Otherwise, it’s on Baker.
Something went missing after the victory against Indianapolis. Chubb’s injury occurred the week before, sure, but the confidence has waned. A come from behind win against feisty Cincinnati didn’t provide the elixir. The bravado shown against Dallas and Indy has disappeared. They seem unsure as a team, wanting to contend, yet unsure of how to do it. But again, the schedule is their friend. Houston coming into Cleveland after the bye week is pivotal. The Texans are 1-6, yet won a playoff game last season and pushed the Chiefs, in Kansas City, for 20 minutes in the divisional round. Deshaun Watson will carve the secondary if given time. Their offensive line again is a weak link, however, allowing Watson to be sacked 8% of the time, 28th in the league. Playoff teams can’t lose to bottom feeders at home in November. We will draw a line of demarcation when Houston leaves Cleveland on November 15. Are the Browns playoff contenders, capable of competing against the top tier of the AFC? Or are they still early, searching for an identity and more talent?
The Whip Around
1.Until Lamar Jackson sticks a big throw in a tight game or on a game winning drive, we cannot consider the Ravens Super Bowl contenders. Jackson is dynamic. One of the most fascinating players in the league, he brings a skill set unlike anyone we’ve seen. But he’s reached his ceiling. The Ravens have wilted the past two years in the playoffs, and he’s struggled in marquee games against the Chiefs and Steelers. Talented teams, whether by scoring with the Ravens offense or utilizing ultra athletic defenders, have slowed Jackson, forcing turnovers and stalled Baltimore drives. The Ravens sat on teams last season with shock and awe early in games. Lamar’s skills cannot be simulated. But the league is coming around, and if Baltimore isn’t dominating opponents, Jackson’s talent is muted. Pinpoint passing to lead a team down the field late in games isn’t his forte. Can he develop that? For the Ravens to advance deep into the playoffs, he must.
2. Tampa’s ceiling may depend on their playoff draw. Defensive pressure with four rushers, and not having to blitz, has cost Tom Brady one Super Bowl, and while he’s been outstanding after three subpar performances to start the season, his movement at 43 years old is waning. The greatest to move inside the pocket, Brady can’t make the half steps and slides that were once his trademark, and the pressure on Tampa’s offensive line to keep him clean in January will be immense. The crappy Giants hung with the Bucs on Monday Night by hitting Brady and making him rush throws. Who can make him uncomfortable in the playoffs? While Seattle may be the best team in the NFC now, their pass rush stinks. The Rams and Saints (sixth and seventh in the league in sack rate), may cause Brady more problems.
3. When you punch someone in the helmet, you’re telling on yourself.
4. Among the myriad of reasons Dallas has fallen over a cliff is the poor play of linebacker Jaylon Smith. His Pro Football Focus rankings have cratered this season. He graded out at 70 overall last year, 81 against the run. In 2020 his rankings have dropped to 52 and 53, respectively. His tackles are high, but it deadens his impact when he brings down ball carriers 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys always underwhelm, yet this year seems different. This group should have competed for a Super Bowl already, but Dak Prescott sits injured while in line for a mega contract, their once great offensive line is struggling, Ezekiel Elliott’s contract extension looks bad, and Smith is regressing. How ‘bout them Cowboys?
5. It’s hard to tell if Carson Wentz is bad now, or if Philadelphia’s injuries and inept offensive line play is dragging him down. Two picks and two lost fumbles on Sunday night are a bad look against an awful Dallas squad, and his 12 interceptions on the season lead the league. Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Miles Sanders have all missed most of the season, or significant time. The division is so bad, the Eagles should make the playoffs by default. Then they become a tough out. They’ll have a home game as a division winner, and most of the injured guys should return. Doug Pederson’s a Super Bowl winning coach. So how good is Carson Wentz?
6. Justin Herbert keeps making plays, and the Chargers keep blowing leads. Herbert is a star; throws like this one are impossible. But when does the constant losing of three touchdown leads affect his psyche?
7. Atlanta’s undisciplined, personal foul ridden win against Carolina last Thursday showed why they’re bad. Two late hits out of bounds, double flags on a kickoff (they kicked off!), and a late hit by Charles Harris on Teddy Bridgewater (which led to an ejection) are dumb fouls made by unthinking players. The Falcons aren’t snake bitten by bad luck. They’re getting what they deserve.
8. Cam Newton just drops the football with New England in the red zone against Buffalo with 30 seconds left. What gives? Newton was fantastic early in the season, but over his last 3 games has no passing touchdowns, 5 picks, and the lost fumble. The Patriots are losing, a switch flipped on them after two decades of dominance. With Miami playing well, only the Jets offer easy wins for the Patriots and a chance to regain their footing. If they lose in New Jersey Monday night, they’re done, with an off-season like no other coming for New England.
9. If only Daniel Jones could stick to throwing beauties like this, instead of turning the ball over……………….
10. He doesn’t dominate opposing offenses, but Emmanuel Ogbah is the style of signing teams like the Dolphins make which speed up turnarounds. Ogbah had one tackle Sunday, a huge strip sack fumble of Jared Goff that teammate Andrew Van-Ginkel housed in the Dolphins upset of the Rams. Ogbah already has a career high with 6 sacks, tied for seventh in the league. He’ll never be a star, but consistent pass rushers are gold in the NFL. Miami’s rebuild is impressive. If Tua hits, they’re a problem, and soon.
All stats courtesy of pro-football-reference.com