2020 Cleveland Browns Preview

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns, Myles Garrett

Competency. Consistency. Respect. Qualities the Cleveland Browns organization has hidden from since their return. Never mind winning a division including the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers, the Browns haven’t won over seven games since 2007. The 2020 version has talent. As did the 2019 one. But until they establish an identity, an idea of who the Cleveland Browns are, what they do well, and a belief that they’ll do those things when it matters, nothing will change.

This is the task Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry must manage if they are to succeed where all others have failed. The ownership is inadequate, and to overcome that is improbable. But Stefanski has shown strong leadership during the off-season dealing with COVID-19 and social justice issues. He’s a rookie coach wrapping up his first training camp without preseason games, however. Given their history, how long a leash will ownership provide him?

The offense is the strength, with the biggest question mark at quarterback. Reports from training camp revealed struggles on most days for Baker Mayfield: inaccurate, interception prone, and indecisive. The last part is most worrisome. Mayfield’s problems occur when he’s in the pocket too long, tapping the ball with his left hand, scanning the field in panic. His height hinders him here. Once pressure collapses the pocket, Baker just isn’t tall enough to see over the bodies. This causes him to bail early to create new throwing lanes, cutting off half the field. He becomes less accurate on the move, another issue that hindered his progress last year. So what can they do?

This play takes too long to develop, and Baker’s indecisiveness has him walking into a sack

Play action. Three-step drops. Slant patterns. Kevin Stefanski’s primary task to resurrect the third year quarterback is a quicker release from Baker. Mayfield’s pocket presence is an issue. Adjust schemes so it isn’t. Smallish QB’s have two options. Russell Wilson is a maestro on the move. Once he leaves the pocket, the wizardy begins. Mayfield doesn’t have that ability. Drew Brees needs to be his guide. Sean Payton helps Brees by calling short routes and play action passes to slow the pass rush. Last year’s offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, preferred deep, slow developing routes to push the ball downfield. For big quarterbacks, such as Jameis Winston or Ben Roethlisberger, that can see down field and take punishment, this style works. But Mayfield toils in those situations. Remember how fast the ball came out during his first appearance, on Thursday night against the Jets during his rookie year? He had one read and threw darts. The ball was out of his hands before the defense could turn their heads. Stefanski has to give Mayfield less to think about.

When Baker hits his back foot on these plays, the ball is out

They’ve stacked the rest of the offense. The Browns have perhaps the best wide receiver duo and the best running back duo in the league. Nick Chubb finished second in the league in rushing yards last season. His vision is exemplary, and he’s quick. But his strength makes him elite. Chubb was third in the league last year, averaging 3 yards per carry after contact, and led all running backs in broken tackles. He’ll threaten to lead the league in rushing again. Former rushing champion Kareem Hunt signed this week to a 2 year, 13.25 million extension. He’ll get 8-10 carries per week and catch passes out of the backfield and in the slot.

The only questions surrounding Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry will revolve around their health. Beckham fought a hamstring injury last season, and Landry needed hip surgery during the off-season. Each has been a top ten receiver since joining the league. Beckham is spectacular downfield, makes impossible catches, and is dynamic running with the ball. Landry is a workhorse, toiling over the middle and in traffic. He’s one of the most dangerous slot guys in the league. If they are and remain healthy, they can dominate opposing secondaries.

Austin Hooper signed in the off-season to strengthen the tight end position, and he and Mayfield developed a strong connection during workouts in Texas over the summer. While his contract is high (4 years, 44 mil), he gives Mayfield a reliable safety valve over the middle of the field. Last year’s most hated fan unit, the offensive line, found reinforcements. Jedrick Willis Jr., a first rounder out of Alabama, will play left tackle, and free agent Jack Conklin signed to line up on the right side. Willis played right tackle in college and may experience setbacks with the switch to a new position, and Conklin is a much better run blocker than in pass protection, but both are upgrades. Add them to Pro Bowler Joel Bitonio, Pro Bowl snub J. C. Tretter, and improving Wyatt Teller, and the line is no longer a weakness. The pieces are in place. If the offense struggles in 2020, the blame will fall on Baker Mayfield.

So, the defense. Myles Garrett is back from suspension. One of the best defenders, in theory, in the league, Garrett enters every year with the goal of winning Defensive Player of the Year. However, injuries and last year’s suspension have held him back. Penalties are blunting his effect on games, too. Unnecessary roughness, late hits, and jumping offsides plagued the former number 1 pick last year. Discipline has become paramount to his development. Helmet smashings aside, Garrett needs to curtail the yellow flags. As a leader of the defense, his maturation will portend their success. They won’t survive without smarter play from Garrett.

The starting defensive line returns from last year, a unit that ranked 8th in the league in quarterback pressure percentage until Garrett’s suspension. Garrett, Larry Ogunjobi, Sheldon Richardson, and Olivier Vernon represent the only grouping on the defense with proven success. Ogunjobi and Richardson had stellar 2019 seasons, especially after Garrett’s departure, and Vernon, while struggling early, began affecting games until injuries cut his season short. The linemen must dominate in 2020. Pressure is the key component to disrupting opposing quarterbacks. It’s the only problem a defense can present that offenses cannot overcome. If the Browns are to stay in games, these guys are key.

Behind them, it’s dicey. The linebackers are unproven. Mack Wilson flashed in his rookie year, but will miss some time with injury. B.J. Goodson, signed in the off-season from Green Bay, started 9 games and recorded 37 tackles last season. Sione Takitaki, drafted by John Dorsey in the 3rd round a year ago, barely saw the field during his rookie year. Jacob Phillips, a rookie from LSU, will start for Wilson, and showed promise in training camp, but this unit is uninspiring. Quick, athletic linebackers are a must given that they face Baltimore twice a year. Phillips is that, but must prove he deserves field time. And with Joe Schobert gone to Jacksonville as a free agent, Cleveland lost their defensive play caller and quarterback. Who steps into his role? Expect teams to run at the inexperience in the middle of the defense and pressure them with throws to tight ends. If this unit struggles, so will the defense.

Further back, the secondary arouses little confidence either. Denzel Ward, a Pro Bowler as a rookie, took leaps backward last year. Teams picked on him deep. He needs a return to All-Star form to stabilize this unit. His opposite corner, Greedy Williams, was okay as a rookie, but is hurt and questionable for Sunday. At safety, free agent signings Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo will start, while Ronnie Harrison, acquired via a 5th round 2021 draft pick from Jacksonville, is still learning the scheme. The hope was for rookie Grant Delpit to snag a starting spot, but suffered a torn Achilles during training camp and is out for the season. Holes abound in the secondary.

No one behind the defensive line has been a consistent NFL player in their career. Defensive coordinator Joe Woods brings expectations because of his work with San Francisco’s defensive backs last year and an impressive stint as Denver’s defensive coordinator in 2017 (3rd in the league in total defense). The problem remains the talent level he has to work with.

Kevin Stefanski wants to run the ball on offense, controlling clock and field position. Running teams win games 17-13. To win with a dominant rushing attack, stout defense is a must-have. This defense isn’t good enough to support a run heavy offense. For the Browns, or any NFL team in 2020, the recipe for victories is to throw to get the lead, then run to keep it. Wins are contingent on quarterback play. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are good enough to win 6-7 games. Anything higher rests on Baker Mayfield. The holes on defense are too large to count on them to stifle opposing offenses. The firepower possessed by the Browns is capable of scoring 27-30 a game, provided Mayfield returns to his rookie year form. If his completion percentage rises and the interceptions fall, Cleveland can compete. So, how much do you trust Baker Mayfield? It’s a question for the fans, but also for Kevin Stefanski. We’ll know early what he thinks of his quarterback. If his game plans are conservative, the head coach knows Mayfield isn’t the future of the franchise.

Ownership must trust Stefanski to mold the Cleveland franchise into his image. Paul DePodesta, the chief strategy officer, wanted him in 2019. DePodesta seems to be the current Jimmy Haslam ear holder. It’s imperative to give Stefanski time. He’s going to miss challenges, make wrong 4th down decisions, and his team may look unprepared. Young coaches in the NFL are green. The skills needed to run a team on the sideline during a game are daunting. Minus guys with older Hall of Fame type quarterbacks (see Matt LaFleur with Aaron Rodgers), most struggle. But DePodesta and Haslam hired Stefanski to save themselves from squandering the most talented Cleveland roster since 1994. If ownership hasn’t learned patience yet, they never will.

The other franchises in the division, minus Cincinnati, are the model. They develop talent and change schemes to maximize the roster. But it takes a commitment and belief in yourself and the people you’ve hired to see the program through. What organization, in any sport, that changes coaches and general managers on a dime, prospers? None. The rest of the league is too good at exposing weaknesses. Stefanski and Berry are smart. Smart people fail, yet learn from their failures. Allow your young brain trust to fail.

It’s the only way, the only path the organization hasn’t followed. The Browns and their fans have to be alright with mediocrity for the sake of growth. Myles Garrett reached the lowest depths of his professional career a year ago. The noise, disdain, and venom he lived through will either launch his career, or break him. Expect him to have a monster season. Failure causes reflection, leading to revision, conveying to success. Only the Browns try to skip steps. Disappointing seasons in the past lead to firings and overhauls. It can’t happen anymore in Cleveland. If anyone in the organization is interested in actual success, they’ll take whatever this season brings, ignore any drama, and allow the men they’ve hired to learn, and fail.

Kevin Stefanski is Set Up to Fail

Cleveland Browns, Jimmy Haslam, Kevin Stefanski

What is one tangible attribute that suggests Kevin Stefanski will be a successful NFL head coach? He’s Ivy League educated. Paul DePodesta wanted to hire him last year instead of Freddie Kitchens. He’ll supposedly agree with hiring Andrew Berry, a former Browns executive now Philadelphia’s Vice President of Football Operations, as G.M. DePodesta, Stefanski, and Berry, in theory, will synergize the business, football, and coaching branches in Cleveland. I’ll ask again. What points to Stefanski having the skills and experience needed to be a successful head coach in Cleveland?

Jimmy Haslam still sits atop the organizational chart. Synergy is an excellent goal and one that all good businesses strive for. But Jimmy Haslam remains. Who will pay for the next slow start, or disappointing season? DePodesta put this together; he’ll be next on the chopping block. How long will his leash be?

Patience in this situation is paramount. First time head coaches need a long leash. Kevin Stefanski is a 37-year-old who has run an NFL offense for 20 games. He’s never been in charge of running a training camp. He’s interviewed with the media sporadically, not forced to sit in front of a microphone multiple times per week. Stefanski hasn’t experienced game day on an NFL sideline in charge of calling plays, challenging bad calls, and managing the game clock. He will make mistakes. A lot of them.

Will the fan base, media, front office, and players have the patience to allow him to fail? With Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, and Myles Garrett on the roster, tolerance for losing is low. Twenty years of futility and the remnants of a disappointing 6-10 season are all Browns fans have. Will an 8-8 record be good enough to appease the starved fan base?

The patience required to tear down a dysfunctional organization and rebuild it in a manner conducive to consistent winning does not exist. The wounds are too raw; the thirst for wins too present. Kevin Stefanski has to win now, and he has to win big. Baker Mayfield has to become a Pro Bowl quarterback next year under his watch. Nick Chubb needs 275-300 carries, 1500 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry both tallied 1000 yards receiving in down years. The sky is back to being the limit for one of the best wide receiver duos in the league.

They set Kevin Stefanski up to fail. While the organization tries to align all entities, history says the synergy won’t last long. What happens when a disagreement occurs in the draft room? Differing opinions over a free agent? Will the new three-headed decision making body hold hands and do what is best for the Cleveland Browns, or will they do what is best for themselves? Who will Haslam side with once the discord begins? Will he calm the waters once things get choppy? Or will he promote more backstabbing and power hording? Haslam likes the ego stroking that comes with infighting and inter-office politicking. No evidence suggests he has the leadership skills or discipline to create an environment free of this toxicity.

Haslam has proven in the past to be gullible and easily swayed by the last person he’s talked to. DePodesta won this power struggle against John Dorsey, but he’s put himself in the guillotine. Haslam won’t blame himself, won’t step back and let this simmer, and won’t fire another head coach after one year (don’t bet on it!). Any rumblings of discord, or a three game losing streak, or a perceived lack of readiness now rests in DePodesta’s lap. Is this organization now structured to withstand the minor potholes that become road blocks?

What proof is there that Kevin Stefanski can coach an NFL team? There is none. This organization needed a resolute, stable leader who’d been through the fires surrounded by successful people in a winning organization. The franchise needed a shape shifter at its second most important position, someone who knows winning and how to dominate opponents. Another first-year head coach, a roll of the dice, is a recipe for more failure. The best argument for the hire seems to be, “Other lightly regarded candidates have won before, let’s wait and see.” This organization has not earned “wait and see” status.

The Minnesota Vikings have been more successful than the Browns, but they have won nothing of consequence. Mike Zimmer has been their head coach since 2014. They’ve made the playoffs three times and won 2 playoff games, one on a fluke play. The Vikings are always good. Does anyone see greatness from the organization or coaching staff? What schemes or structures are considered innovative? Stefanski had help running their offense, Zimmer didn’t trust him on his own. How much credit should Gary Kubiak get for Minnesota’s offense this year? What did the Vikings do better than anyone else in the league? Who has left and been great anywhere else?

The Browns franchise no longer gets the benefit of the doubt. They’ve proved unable to make even the most basic decisions to field a competent team. It is possible that if you throw enough darts, you’ll eventually hit a bullseye. Even if Kevin Stefanski has the abilities needed to be a successful head coach, however, it is unlikely the environment in Cleveland will allow him to blossom. Good organizations with strong ownership and defined leadership can afford to hire unproven coordinators with strong upside. Unfortunately for Browns’ fans, the one in Berea cannot.